Friday, May 24, 2013

The Federal Reserve's new whiz-bang - - -

"Forward Guidance" is the FED's main new whiz-bang financial manipulation toy. Here's what they themselves say about it - - -

With short-term interest rates at the zero lower bound, forward guidance has become a key tool for central bankers, and yet we know little about its effectiveness. Standard medium-scale ...models tend to grossly overestimate the impact of forward guidance on the macroeconomy -- a phenomenon we call the "forward guidance puzzle." The Forward Guidance Puzzle - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

So, basically, they don't know what the un-fuck they're doing with something that "has become a key tool for central bankers."

"Forward guidance" is just FED spokes-folks publicly explaining what they think they're going to do. Before this, it was unofficial, minor, and called "jawboning." Before that, the FED kept everything hidden as if they were bluffing in a high-stakes poker game.

So the future of the fiat-based world economy hangs on something of which the FED admits, "we know little about its effectiveness," our "models tend to grossly overestimate the impact," and in fact, "forward guidance" is a "puzzle."

(rofl)

I've fallen and I can't get up - - -

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

How to control inflation

Annual [Argentine] inflation, clocked by private analysts at over 20 percent, was another worry voiced in the survey. The government fines economists who publish their inflation estimates, which tend to double or triple the official figures... --Argentine leader's image falls as inflation soars | Reuters
Argentina's government apparently forced McDonald's to sell the Big Mac at an artificially low price to manipulate the country's performance on the "Big Mac index"
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Monday, April 15, 2013

What's with gold? The Bigger Picture - - -

The titular price of gold dropped about $84 dollars on Friday, April 12, 2013 in an obviously unprecedented manner. Yet, at the same time, ABN AMRO, one of the largest banks in Europe, failed to deliver the PHYSICAL gold it had contracted to deliver and defaulted, Venezuela, Germany, and apparently the Netherlands are repatriating their gold from the U.S. Fed -- and the U.S. Mint has periodically suspended sales of precious coins because of a lack of metal to cast them with.

SOMETHING is going on. Maybe it's just a normal trashing of the gold price by the government-banking axis, but to an extreme degree.

The question is, "Why NOW?"

Hopefully the answer is, "Because we've been trying to do this to protect our Keynesian zero-real-interest-rates against gold ever since it hit $1900/oz and threatened them -- and just NOW all the factors were finally right." Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts thinks this is the case.

That's most likely.

BUT if the answer is, "We see a serious ripple in the fiat force, and we're trying to head the disaster off at the pass," they may be right. Worse, their blatantly obvious action against gold may precipitate the very disaster they fear and perhaps are even semi-aware of from history.

In that case, here's what that would likely look like - - - My Blog Former U.S. Under Secretary of Treasury Paul Craig Roberts explains what the bankster-government axis may be worried about.

According to veteran metals trader Andrew McGuire, the western banking-government amalgam, spearheaded as usual by Bankster Goldman Sachs, dumped more than an unheard of 500 tons of PAPER gold on the market late last week. And pimped, cajoled, and forced other weak hands to play along.

What's paper have to do with it? "Paper gold" merely means it was promises to deliver gold, not gold itself. Which is what makes the failure of ABN AMRO to deliver promised gold very interesting indeed.

It's directly analagous to the beginning of an old fashioned run on a bank where the bank was unable to redeem its "Redeemable in Gold on Demand" dollars -- the only Constitutional kind -- because they'd printed those redeemable I.O.U.s for more gold than they actually had. If anyone else had done that, it would be called "counterfeiting."

And because the banks are so interconnected, this isn't just a run on ABN AMRO.

AND maybe the repatriation movement, besides being interesting, is the straw that lit the fuse as Venezuela, Gremany, probably Holland, and perhaps some other countries are repatriating their gold which has been theoretically stored in the valuts beneath the Federal Resreve Bank of New York -- made famous in Die Hard With a Vengeance, the third in the series.

History? That was when France, a few other countries, and most importantly, the markets, called Uncle Scam's Bretton-Woods "London Gold Pool" paper-gold bluff by taking delivery of actual physical gold from the U.S. and its other eight dragooned central banks. In stupidly trying to again raise the market bet and cap the price of gold, Uncle airlifted a bunch of gold to London, ultimately collapsing the floor of one storage vault. But that was all to no avail. Being caught with its counterfeit shorts down, finally, on August 15, 1971, with Executive Order 11615, Nixon "closed the gold window," thus abrogating the international convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold and finalizing the biggest default in history. So far.

P.S. As of April 14, 2013, 22:57, it looks like Goldman et.al. are still working the plan. Be interesting to see just how far they can go before the markets once again slap them upside the head.


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Thursday, December 06, 2012

The REAL Fear Factor


Can YOU find the common denominator?

Folks including H.L. Mencken, U.S. founder James Madison, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Henry Kissinger, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, U.S. General Douglas MacArthur, and Prof. Chalmers Johnson all explain the main factor we should fear.
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed -- and thus clamorous to be led to safety -- by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." -- H.L. Mencken
"It is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to the provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad." --James Madison
"Our (U.S.) government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear - kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor - with the cry of grave national emergency ... Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind the exorbitant funds demanded. Yet, in retrospect, these disasters seem never to have happened, seem never to have been quite real." --US General Douglas MacArthur, Address to the Annual Stockholders Sperry Rand Corporation (30 July 1957)
"Today Americans would be outraged if UN troops entered Los Angeles to restore order; tomorrow, they will be grateful. This is especially true if they were told there is an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being by their world government." --Henry Kissinger, June 8, 1992, Evian, France, Media Protects Bilderberg, Spotlight.org
"It is part of the general pattern of misguided policy that our country is now geared to an arms economy which was bred in an artificially induced psychosis of war hysteria and nurtured upon an incessant propaganda of fear. While such an economy may produce a sense of seeming prosperity for the moment, it rests on an illusionary foundation of complete unreliability and renders among our political leaders almost a greater fear of peace than is their fear of war." --U.S. General Douglas MacArthur, Speech to the Michigan legislature, in Lansing, Michigan (15 May 1952).
"The easiest way to gain control of a population is to carry out acts of terror. [The public] will clamor for such laws if their personal security is threatened." --??Josef Stalin
Given this background, it is not surprising that some have seen the US failure to avert the 9/11 attacks as creating an invaluable pretext for attacking Afghanistan in a war that had clearly already been well planned in advance. There is a possible precedent for this. The US national archives reveal that President Roosevelt used exactly this approach in relation to Pearl Harbor on December 7 1941. ... Similarly the PNAC [Project for a New American Century] blueprint of September 2000 states that the process of transforming the US into "tomorrow's dominant force" is likely to be a long one in the absence of "some catastrophic and catalyzing event -like a new Pearl Harbor". This war on terrorism is bogus, Michael Meacher, MP & U.K. environment minister, The Guardian, Saturday September 6, 2003
"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.
"We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together." --Dwight D. Eisenhower, Military-Industrial Complex Speech, 1961, Public Papers of the Presidents, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1960, p. 1035- 1040
"Barbarian invasions would be superfluous: we are our own Huns." --Bertrand de Jouvenal
"This time his [Prof. Chalmers Johnson] tone was more alarmist, while his focus was on the way an American version of military Keynesianism was failing the country. He feared that the U.S. would be simultaneously overwhelmed by related tides of militarism and bankruptcy. ...and predicted that, in the reasonably near future, the U.S. would have to choose between remaining a democratic society or becoming a military dictatorship." --Chalmers Johnson vs. the Empire by Tom Engelhardt -- Antiwar.com
[Police Chief] Stovall told the group of almost 40 residents that beginning in 2013, the department would deploy a new street crimes unit to high crime areas on foot to take back the streets. "[Police are] going to be in SWAT gear and have AR-15s around their neck," Stovall said. "If you're out walking, we're going to stop you, ask why you're out walking, check for your ID." Arkansas Police chief says citizens could be subject to ID checks
Government officials are quietly installing sophisticated audio surveillance systems on public buses across the country to eavesdrop on passengers, according to documents obtained by The Daily. Plans to implement the technology are under way in cities from San Francisco to Hartford, Conn., and Eugene, Ore., to Columbus, Ohio. ...With the new systems, experts say, transit officials can effectively send an invisible police officer to transcribe the individual conversations of every passenger riding on a public bus. BIG BROTHER'S LISTENING - The Daily
The Pentagon has confirmed plans to deploy hundreds of additional spies overseas as part of an effort to expand its intelligence operations worldwide. The Washington Post reports the Defense Intelligence Agency hopes to use the covert operatives as part of an overall force of some 1,600 officials around the world. The proposed expansion would ultimately result in what the Pentagon aims to be an espionage network rivaling the CIA in size. It would also likely result in an increased number of deadly air strikes and other covert actions that would otherwise be subjected to congressional oversight. --Pentagon to Deploy Hundreds of Spies Worldwide, Democracy Now! December 03, 2012
William Binney, the former chief of research, the National Security Agency's signals intelligence division, describes this situation that we are in now as "turnkey totalitarianism," that the whole system of totalitarianism has been built -- the car, the engine has been built -- and it's just a matter of turning the key. And actually, when we look to see some of the crackdowns on WikiLeaks and the grand jury process and targeted assassinations and so on, actually it's arguable that key has already been partly turned. --Wikileaks' Julian Assange
Talk of imminent threat to our national security through the application of external force is pure nonsense. Our threat is from the insidious forces working from within which have already so drastically altered the character of our free institutions - those institutions we proudly called the American way of life." --General Douglas MacArthur, Speech to the Michigan legislature, in Lansing, Michigan (15 May 1952)

So tell me, what did all these informed folks think the main factor we have to fear is?

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ALSO RELEVANT:

Freedom and the Indians
What the Elders Say
The nature of "reality" via Bohr, Feynman, & Quantum Mechanics
The Essence of Government by Ostensive Definition
Governments don't aid progress, they retard it
UNCOMMON SENSE: The REAL Fear Factor
Franz Oppenheimer, The State [1919], Translator: John Milton Gitterman
The Criminality of the State - Albert Jay Nock - Mises Daily
Silicon Valley Roused by Secession Call - NYTimes.com
The End of the Nation-State? - NYTimes.com
It's not who or what you think - - -

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Monday, December 26, 2011

Ron Paul: Putting your money where your mouth is - - -

Putting your money where your mouth is - - -
--Greg Mankiw's Blog: The Ron Paul Portfolio
- - - AND loving it - - -
--Ron Paul's Long-Term Holdings Outperform The Market And Most Pros - Seeking Alpha
L. Reichard White, Monday, December 26, 2011 11:49 AM

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Monday, October 17, 2011

The nature of "reality" via Bohr, Feynman, & Quantum Mechanics

"You decry "states", forgetting that without existing in a "state" you have no existence whatsoever (I am referring here to your earlier comment on how the root word "state" means "static" or unchanging)...that which is not in some recognizable state is an undefined cloud of random nothingness." --Greg

I see where the problem lies.

"States" are never unchanging -- except in someone's imagination. Those Rocky Mountains are slowly weathering away and in the distant future will be old worn down mountains like the Appalachians out east (which, aeons ago, were the tallest mountains in Earth's history), etc. We may, in such cases, ignore the changes which are, none the less, always occuring in everything and ASS-U-ME that the changes don't matter for current purposes -- and hope that assumption is right. None the less, the changes are, as any first year science student should be able to tell you, still occuring whether we like it or not.

And most folks don't like it. It makes them feel insecure. So, many seek the false security of an "unchanging condition" AKA, "state," which simply can't exist. And sometimes that imaginary concept metastasizes into a political "State."

As the Niarga River inexorably eats away at the bedrock beneath, Niagra Falls moves upstream from 3.5 to 7 feet per year. As a result, during its lifetime, the falls has moved about seven miles upstream. That's why it's where it is today. And, unsurprisingly, there is an organization that wants to stop the process. Lots of luck with that.

Like it or not, universal change is solidly based on established principles of Physics -- and is a basic tenet of General Semantics.

The most basic level models we have of "reality," especially quantum mechanics, indeed tell us everything is pretty much "an undefined cloud of random nothingness." Einstein didn't like this a bit. Neither did seminal quantum physicist Neils Bohr.

Which is probably why he quipped, "If you are not surprised by quantum mechanics then you have not understood it." And, further, likely as a result,

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." --Seminal quantum physicist Niels Bohr

Another legendary physicist, Richard Feynman, agrees with Bohr about Quantum Mechanics - - -

"I think I can safely say that nobody understands Quantum Mechanics." --Richard Feynman
Since quantum models show "reality" to be pretty much "random nothingness" -- and have been reluctantly accepted by main-stream physics -- this probably explains another of Feynman's famous quotes - - - 
"I have approximate answers and possible beliefs and different degrees of certainty about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure of anything"... --Richard Feynman

At this point, either you "get" it or you don't.

It took me six months of intensive discussion with one of my friends before he "got" it. Another read "People in Quandaries" and "got it" pretty much on his own. It's not easy either way.

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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Just another I.O.U.

There's always a discount on an I.O.U. The amount depends on its perceived likely-hood of being paid. The dollar is, in essence, such an I.O.U. The perception of repayment is dropping and you can follow it by watching the value of dollars on the market. --L. Reichard White, Thursday, November 11, 2010 3:22 AM


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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Right between the eyes -- free vs. regulated

Email To CNBC sent May 12, 2010:
==========
I heard two sound-bytes on your air that struck me "right between the eyes" -- in the frontal lobes.
1. In the [2008] financial crisis, it was the regulated entities, not the shadow entities that blew up. --James S. Chanos (Kynikos), May 6, 2010, 07:53:49.

2. Only about 35% of stock market trades are done on the "official" markets -- the rest are done on markets you never even heard of. --Yesterday [May 11, 2010] about 2:49PM
Can you maybe do a segment on the implications, which seem to be:
"We need to do away with the current financial establishment in favor of  unregulated true free-markets."
Or perhaps,
"We're doing away with regulated markets whether we know it or not -- and unregulated works better."
Or did I miss something??

Health, happiness, & long life,
Rick

P.S. Baring the special segment, how about a personal note from Kudlow -- or Michelle Caruso-Cabrera?

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Sunday, May 09, 2010

Out of Greece: The dynamics of contagion

"As I testified before this committee in the midst of the Mexican financial crisis in early 1995, major advances in technology have engendered a highly efficient and increasingly sophisticated international financial system. ...But that same efficient financial system, as I also pointed out in that earlier testimony, has the capability to rapidly transmit the consequences of errors of judgement in private investments and public policies to all corners of the world at historically unprecedented speeds." -Alan Greenspan to House Banking Committee, 16 September, 1998.  --BIG-FLOAT: The American Damocles



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Sunday, March 28, 2010

Complex systems and the "Waterfall Effect"

The economy is such a complex organism with so many variables that it simply cannot be controlled. It is the height of arrogance that our politicians and so-called economists think they can control it. And it is the absolute height of arrogance that they attempt to do so in such a way as to ALSO benefit their selfish goals. With this level of stupidity, unintended consequences become many orders of magnitude more probable than the intended consequences. In fact, betting on the exact opposite of stated political goals is a sure bet for the long run right now. And the payoff will be tremendous! --FOFOA: The Waterfall Effect



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Friday, February 12, 2010

How inflation led to totalitarianism in Rome

The episodes of extreme inflation took a standard form. ... The government ...resorted to debasing the coins of the realm. This took the form of replacing the gold and silver in coins with copper and other cheaper metals. Over the period 218 to 268 A.D. the silver content of Roman coins dropped to one five thousandth of its original level. Sometimes the size and weight of coins were reduced. It also meant vastly increasing the amount of coins in circulation. There was a corresponding increase in prices. The emperors usually blamed the price increases on the greed of merchants. ... In 301 AD Diocletian issued an edict declaring fixed prices; i.e., price controls. His edict provided for the death penalty for anyone selling above the control prices. There was also penalties (less severe) for anyone paying more than the control price. Irate consumers sometimes destroyed the businesses of those who sold higher than the control prices. In the short-run these draconian measures may have curbed inflation but in the long-run the results were disaster. Merchants stopped selling goods but this led to penalties against hoarding. People went out of business but Diocletian countered with laws saying that every man had to pursue the occupation of their father. The penalty for not doing so was death. This was justified on the basis that leaving the occupation of ones father was like a soldier deserting in time of war. The effect of this was to turn free men into serfs.   EPISODES OF HYPERINFLATION, Thayer Watkins, ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT, SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY


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