It's Februay 6, 2011, Super Bowl Sunday. The middle-east uprisings are in full swing. Especially in Egypt.
The Egyptians are poorer than we are, had undergone Mubarak for 30 years, and believed they would never escape the totalitarian yoke. But that was 12 days ago.
In 1987 I was traveling with Monica, a Polish girl from behind the "Iron Curtain...." We had many discussions about the, at the time, Russian "Evil Empire." She believed the hated "soviets" were solidly in control -- and would stay that way for the foreseeable future, perhaps 1,000 years.
I'd read "Can The Soviet Union Survive Until 1984" by a Russian dissident and so I questioned her assumptions. She held firm.
About two years later in Nov. Dec. 1989, the Germans tore down the most prominent expression of the "Iron Curtain," the "Berlin Wall." Monica told a lot of her friends about our discussions, and as a result, I got the mostly undeserved reputation among my Polish friends of being a savvy if unconventional social historian.
I just recorded John Kerry, appearing on Meet the Press, trying to explain why the CIA was caught flat-footed in anticipating the timing of the Egyptian uprising. He correctly observed that it's impossible to predict such things.
So, the Second American Revolution HAS been scheduled - - - it's just that no one knows exactly when.
Labels: anarchy, Evil Empire, fascism, government, Iron Law of Oligarchy, Kamin future government Mangrum, revolution, spontaneous order, totalitarianism, unintended consequences